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Project abstract

Project rationale

Understanding DCV

Background publication

Rationale

Enhanced contact-tracing has been recognized as critical. The need is identified in Ferguson, et al. 14 May 2004. Public Health Risk from the Avian H5N1 Influenza Epidemic. Science, 968-9): They state, "Quantifying human-to-human transmission then requires detailed case investigations and contract tracing...." Technological enhancement is supported by Matthews and Woolhouse (July 2005. New approaches to quantifying the spread of infection. Nature Reviews: Microbiology, 3, 529-536): They state, "[H]eterogeneities in the number of secondary infections generated by an infected case (exemplified by the super-spreaders of the SARS outbreak), mean the contract-tracing data is essential for proper quantification of uncertainty in the reproduction ratio" (p. 532). In their last paragraph (p. 535), they emphasize that, "the speed with which effective control measures are implemented is usually an important, if not the most important, factor in the size of the outbreak." So, the distributed contagion vigilance technology is easily justified, assuming a funding source that understands the concept - this was the fatal flaw last time:

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Other recent developments, that could support the application, stem from the network-based models, such as: Scale-Free Networks and Sexually Transmitted Diseases A Description of Observed Patterns of Sexual Contacts in Britain and Zimbabwe ANNE SCHNEEBERGER, DR RER NAT,* CATHERINE H. MERCER, PHD,? SIMON A. J. GREGSON, PHD,* NEIL M. FERGUSON, DPHIL,* CONSTANCE A. NYAMUKAPA, MSC,* ROY M. ANDERSON, FRS,* ANNE M. JOHNSON, MD,? AND GEOFF P. GARNETT, PHD* Sexually Transmitted Diseases, June 2004, Vol. 31, No. 6, p.380?387

These results suggest that massive reductions in incidence could be achieved by removing a percent or so of the at-risk population. This would make the needed investment tractable, even in lower income countries.

Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. (Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Apr 20;101(16):6146-51. Epub 2004 Apr 7.) also makes a case for improved contact-tracing technology. They claim that HIV will not be controlled by contact tracing of symptomatic individuals, but only by tracing chains of contacts. Distributed contagion vigilance is inherently structured to do this.